Unlucky? Skill issue.

They say luck is when preparation meets opportunity. Well, they're wrong. Luck is just a trait that people have. Luck is 100% emulatable. Want more crits? Stab more often.

I've noticed something. People that always win tend to keep on winning. If it was just luck, wouldn't it basically balance out? Eventually, they would start failing, and reverting back to the mean. But people like Elon, or that one recent graduate eng pushing big projects, that optimistic friend of yours, why do they just keep on winning?

Honestly, I started noticing it because I am extremely lucky. It's quite ludicrous. The rate at which I find myself at the right place at the right time is frequent enough for me to feel guilty about it. How can I be at the right place and the right time so often when I barely ever leave my house?

Most people will attribute the success of others due to "luck", something that is outside of their control. Its easier that way. It is less painful to admit that what seems like luck on the surface, is due to a failure within their control.

I paid attention to the people that kept on winning. I paid attention to my own wins. It didn't really "fit". Some people are able to get outsized results. Not just once, but consistently. When I met them, I knew that they would be able to find that same luck again if they needed to.

When people discredit others as being "just" lucky - what are they talking about? Some outsized opportunity that they have. Not just an opportunity - but a "crit".

How to get lucky - stab more often

Crits in video games are balanced. If, when you rolled a natty 20, you would win the game, the game wouldn't be fun at all! In real life, those 20s really do hit. Crits change your life.

And sure! It is luck! In one instance of rolling the d20, you need to be lucky.

But I'm a hacker. I don't pay attention to the variables I don't control. What is in my control? You would be surprised how much you can find that is in your control. Increase the size of your locus of control!

Just roll the dice more often.

Be prolific.

Do more things per unit time. Run more experiments. Increase the search space. Don't even worry about the preparation. Exploit the opportunities when you see them, sure. If you're not great at exploiting, don't worry about it. You will get more d20s, and those d20s are practice for your crits. And eventually, you'll just get better.

Per action, you aren't really just rolling one d20. Every thing you do can crit across multiple dimensions. Take these blog posts, for example. There is a reason I (try to) write them daily. It's a crit on the actual quality of the blog post.

If I force myself to write every day, what's the worst that can happen? I roll a D1. I get a shitty blog post out. What's the harm in that? People just won't read it. But if I run a d20! If I run a d20, I get a great new idea, I work out something that helps me act better, that helps other people learn.

The cost of doing things is remarkably low. You need to do things! You need to increase the rate at which you sample doing things!

I can't stand pessimistic people

Pessimists never roll the dice. Why even try, they say! That would never work. But the reason I have done so many things is because my baseline assumption is that it would be easy. I trust my first principles thinking more than the reality pushed by our social fabric.

Why wouldn't it work? I don't have a good reason! So I'll try. And try and try.

Then, they wonder why their life sucks.

"Why don't I ever get lucky", shouts cain. "I prayed to god once!". Bro, abel sends a prayer every step he takes.

Do things faster

You need to actually get things done faster. Not because the thing itself is import to do; but because as soon as you are done doing that one thing, you get to roll a d20. The variable we're trying to manipulate here is really just the volume of things done. Don't worry about the quality! The quality will come! In fact, the quality will come faster than if you worry about the quality.

Did you know that I don't edit these blog posts (that much)? I don't have the time. The more time I spend editing means the less likely I will put out a blog post every day. So, I'll simply avoid editing them. And as a result, I will write more blog posts. And if I write more blog posts, I'll simply get better at one shotting them!

An exercise

Think about any person that you know (about) who is incredibly successful. Then, observe their sampling rate across *anything* that they do. You'll find that they carry out an errantly large volume of actions for whatever it is that they do.

Hey. Maybe it's not luck after all!